I was just asked if the operations in Lebanon involving pagers and walkie-talkies are escalation that might lead to a Israeli ground invasion, and if shifting focus to Lebanon means Israel is abandoning the hostages held by Hamas. That set me off. Here's my reply:
First of all, if anyone reading this doesn't know me--I'm a journalist living in Israel and covering the Middle East since 1972. marklavieauthor.com
Anyone who criticizes the anonymous ;-) attack on Hezbollah operatives using pagers and walkie-talkies without condemning Hezbollah's firing thousands of rockets that have emptied out Israel's north and caused extensive destruction in formerly peaceful communities is biased beyond repair.
Anyone who talks of "escalation" for an operation that disabled thousands of terrorists (yes, anyone with a Hezbollah pager or walkie-talkie is by definiton a terrorist) while harming very few civilians and damaged practically no property needs to look up the word "escalation."
Anyone who assumes that it's a God-given right for terrorists to retaliate for operations against their terrorism needs to re-examine their values.
Now, to your actual questions--it appears likely that Israel will send ground troops into Lebanon to stop the daily barrages of rockets, explosive drones and other projectiles into Israel. It is unlikely that such a ground operation will achieve that goal. By mishandling the war in Gaza, Israel has sabotaged its justifiable claim that it should not have to deal with Hezbollah on its own, because every time a Hezbollah terrorist sets foot south of the Litani River, and every time a Hezbollah terrorist fires anything at Israel, it is a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, not just an attack on Israel.
Likewise, Israel should not be expected to handle Houthi and Iranian aggression on its own, but that ship might have sailed as well. Indeed there is concern that moving the focus to Lebanon without resolving the Gaza issue might amount to abandoning the hostages held by Hamas. There is apparently a new Israeli offer on the table for a one-step deal with Hamas, but given its record, it's hard to trust the Israeli government's intentions.Here's my latest article on these issues. The next one is likely to deal with the Houthi matter: https://themedialine.org/news/opinion/opinion-how-to-exit-gaza-by-redefining-the-conflict/
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